Politics channels the Twilight Zone

Ok, show's over, I don't want to add to the pessimism surrounding Julia Gillard here but there's been one final sign which shows for sure that Kevin Rudd is going to be Prime Minister again. This morning he went on Fairfax radio and told listeners that he was more likely to captain the Brisbane Broncos than come back as PM.

I know it's a lifetime away but if you cast your memories way back to 2010, Julia spookily enough said very similar things, albeit with an AFL tinge, just before she became PM in that unforgettable overnight coup. So that's it. Game over, man, game over. This is the final sign of a pending Labor armageddon.

Before Kevin's fall, there were many colourful Julia linescoming out of constant media tussles over the leadership issue. In one interview, where she promised she wouldn't be leader before the 2010 election, she said that the interviewer may as well have asked her if she was "anticipating a trip to Mars". In another she said she was more likely to do a Jessica Watsonand sail around the world, or that she'd sooner be expecting a call from Steven Spielberg before a leadership ballot.

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It seems somehow we've gotten trapped in a loop. Someone has accidentally torn a hole in the political time-space continuum, allowing us to go round and round in ever more depressing circles. There a few signs of this, including the above-mentioned, weirdly similar leadership denials. The other patterns are more obvious, part one is that carbon pricing is on the agenda, part two is a PM slumps in the polls with a rival who's gaining popularity and then part three, they get the boot. We've got part one and part two already lined up in the chamber, someone just needs to pull the trigger and we'll have part three.

As Mary Jo Fisher said recently in parliament, in all of this carbon mess we seem to be dancing the Hokey Pokey and doing the Time Warp all over again. Even Pauline Hanson is getting back into politics and so the broken record goes.

What Julia needs is something to break the cycle, switch gears. If Kevin says that he'd sooner go to Mars than be PM again, we know it's really the end of Labor's world. Tony Abbott and the shock jocks need to settle down, have a juice box and a nap. And the moons need to be aligned so that we're not condemned to replay this.

Otherwise Kevin becomes a dead cert to be PM again, and then maybe he'll bring back an ETS, we'll have a poll dive, and Julia will come back. Maybe this is the Groundhog Day of Australian politics and we're just doomed to repeat and repeat this terrible mess until someone does something right, something different. What else do we do? Time to hold on while we go ever further down the rabbit hole.

Bella Counihan works at the Canberra press gallery and writes for the National Times.

Welcome to the conspiracy theory superhighway

Did you know that Julia Gillard has been accused of treason, making her ineligible for office? That John Howard told Muslims to get out of Australia? Oh, and Lady Gaga is actually a medium of mind control for the Illuminati. Yeah, I read it all on the internet, so it must be true.

The internet is an absolute gold mine for conspiracy theories. But in political terms, it can become a platform to promote misinformation and inflated rhetoric, which could be a problem for the notion of democracy. On forums, blogs and comments on news sites, there are now ever more ways to share the fear you have with your fellow couch-bound worriers.

One man has been on an internet crusade to expose a conspiracy of state and federal
government, along the way accusing Julia Gillard of treason. Brian Shaw, who stood as an independent candidate for the Altona state byelection (Gillard's own home turf), alleges "the Government of Western Australia, without referendum process, removed the State of Western Australia from the Crown of the United Kingdom" and therefore "committed treason". What that quite means is hard to figure out, but constitutional expert George Williams, a professor at the University of NSW, told the National Times that he is unaware of any such removal.

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Shaw brought a few cases against a wide range of political figures including all members of the WA government and Julia Gillard for this believed breach. He goes on to argue that under Section 44 of the Constitution anyone ''attainted of treason'', which by his definition means accused of treason, is therefore unable to run for any position in parliament, which means Gillard's is ineligible for office.

Professor Williams explains, however, that "attainted" means convicted. He told the National Times "an allegation would not be enough. You would actually have to have a ruling", adding that Shaw's argument has "no foundation." Shaw has since been ruled to be a vexatious litigant but his theory is still onYouTube, his website and on other blogs and forums arguing the conspiracy.

YouTube has also propagated various other accusations against Julia Gillard, that she is
a dangerous communist, that she belongs to a reptilian racethat controls the world and also she is a part of the ''New World Order''.

Kevin Rudd too, had many conspiracy theories floating around in the online ether. During his prime ministership he too was part of a conspiracy with the New World Order, and another to make Australia a Nazi state.

In America, of course the problem is much more widespread and particularly prevalent since President Barack Obama's administration. There are so many conspiracy theories around the President that there's an entire website devoted to cataloguing them. His religion, his birth certificate, you name it, there's an Obama conspiracy attached to it.

The internet is increasingly how people can consume the kind of news they want and seek the revelations that they feel the mainstream media isn't telling them. Tea Party forums consistently reproduce the same false anti-Muslim speech, variously attributed to John Howard, Kevin Rudd and Julia Gillard. The speech was in fact originally an editorial in an American newspaper, which ranted against Muslim migration to that country. But, as ABC's Michael Brissenden explains, even though this is a clear fabrication which only a modicum of googling or research would disqualify, members of the Tea Party continue to believe it.

So what does this all point to? Is the media failing us? Is political discussion so unsatisfactory that people have to believe in something beyond the norm? Or is it the fault of that wild and chaotic internet, which has no checks and balances?

There's no conspiracy here, simply that people will always look for meaning in random events, linking things together that are not actually related by logic or evidence. That the time and effort to actually verify things accurately is too time-consuming and most are willing to believe what their friends say over an unknown ''expert'' or news source. Distrust in authority, trying to be an individual in a sea of convention, these are all factors. The online world simply gives people an ability to communicate these fears, passions and beliefs with each other.

Bella Counihan works at the Canberra press gallery and writes for the National Times.

Lady Gillard must confront climate change

Aren't things getting dramatic in federal politics? Suddenly every policy issue is a bomb about to go off with no one knowing who it will destroy — a leader, a party, a government.

A carbon tax is now back on the agenda — despite the PM explicitly promising that there wouldn't be one — and Opposition Leader Tony Abbott has been running the hyperbole at high volume since the announcement. This was a ''betrayal'', there would be a ''people's revolt'' — all a bit OTT. But he may have had something when, last week in Parliament, he compared Julia Gillard to Lady Macbeth.

If you remember your year 12 English, Macbeth is the story of regicide. Lady Macbeth encourages her husband to kill the king so that he can succeed him. But then she is consumed with guilt and dies mysteriously. Like all great Shakespearean drama, the tragedy is foretold long before the end of the first act and we are left to watch the whole mess play out.

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Prime Minister Julia Gillard during question time last Thursday, the day she announced the government's proposed carbon pricing deal. Photo: Andrew Meares
It's not just the broken promise that will haunt Lady Gillard. Her earlier decision to convince Kevin Rudd to slay his emissions trading scheme — a move that led to him losing the top job — will come back to plague her too.
Climate change is here to stay as a political issue. With the blood of climate change policy on her hands, Gillard will have to confront the issue head on, admit missteps or she will be forever trying to prevent the issue from dominating the agenda. To switch plays here, there may never be a story of more woe, than this of Julia and her Kevin . . . and, ahem, carbon pricing.

A positive sign is that Gillard seems to already be taking great pains to admit her mistakes. After tip-toeing around the word ''tax'', she finally said she was ''happy'' to use the word. Initially unwilling to admit that she had broken a promise, Gillard said the hung parliament meant changed circumstances and then that carbon pricing had always been on the table. But she finally said ''yep, it was me, I did it''. This is a promising start but would have helped more had it been earlier.

As in the Scottish play, it is the corrupting power of ambition that threatens Lady Gillard in this potential Labor tragedy. She may want to succeed so much that admitting to mistakes will be difficult. So she will never really get to grips with what haunts the government. The same issues — high ambition and rhetoric, but going about it in the wrong way — also screwed up Rudd.

Watching the doomed characters in Macbeth, you often wonder about the hypotheticals. If Lady Macbeth had not convinced her husband to kill the king then, as an esteemed kinsman, he would have been rewarded. Eventually, they may have been king and queen anyway, with no murder to haunt them.

Similarly, if Gillard (along with others) had not convinced Rudd to slay the ETS, the polls wouldn't have been as terrible. Rudd wouldn't have got the chop and he may have survived, with Gillard to have logically succeeded him in time. By then climate wouldn't have been a problem for the government. But if the issue dominates the next national vote (whether it be a referendum or a general election), Gillard may, like Lady Macbeth, have created her own undoing.

We have no weird sisters and witches to predict the future here. We do have polling and we will soon see what the public reaction is to a carbon tax. A slight majority might support the policy — as with the flood levy. This would be a small ray of hope for the PM.

But, as Shakespeare wrote, ''what's done cannot be undone''. Gillard will have to confront the mistakes of the past, and screw her courage to the sticking place if she's to go on to win the next election.

Bella Counihan works at the Canberra press gallery and writes for The National Times.

Dry PMO key to Julia's success?

Something’s in the water in the Prime Minister’s Office, or indeed a lack of something.

Is it mere coincidence that Julia Gillard over the past couple of weeks back in parliament has been setting off fireworks under the opposition benches and is also ascendant in the polls, while at the same time a good portion of her staff at the PMO have given up the grog for the month of February for charity?

After some pretty dismal primary numbers and less than perfect approval ratings, the latest Newspoll shows her on the up. The recent Libs internal mess and anti-Islam rhetoric might be the cause. But c’mon, isn’t it just as likely some Barnaby Joyce voodoo or a Bob Katter curse - the curse of the oversized hat - has lifted from the office? Meanwhile the real clue is that six staffers including media and policy advisers have been off the booze for the whole month of February with nearly $2,000 raised to help young people with drug and alcohol addictions. With the first $1,000 raised to be matched and given to the QLD Premier’s flood appeal.

The booze-free office must be the factor.

So if the two were connected and they’ve jinxed themselves on this one, could they ever make permanent T-totalers to keep the poll numbers sweet and the office at its peak? Tony Hodges, media assistant in the PMO, told the National Times following that logic might set a dangerous precedent, although there have been some benefits to the whole experience.

The most notable change is that all involved are actually springing out of bed in the morning, not particularly strange but for the fact that most of them get an average 5 hours rest a night, getting up around 3.30 in the morning to start the working day. A better quality sleep has meant a chirpier disposition, and better focus which of course backs up our theory.

But there have been downsides along the way, sorely needed dates have had to be turned down with no social lubrication to calm the first-meeting jitters, some have found it harder to relax at the end of a stress-filled day without a cold beer to unwind and another has even put on a few kilos with chronic substitution of vending machine stock. Morale remains but a permanent dry-spell could chip that away.

Even tougher times were to be had during visits to Queensland after Cyclone Yasi, the emotional long days were greeted with accommodation that had no power, no aircon, long walks up several flights of stairs and at the end of it, the only cold drinks available were XXXX beers. Although some were tempted, the crew bonded together to overcome.

Even more arduous have been the social side of things, which Hodges said has been the “toughest part”. Wednesday is the day during sitting weeks where the parliamentary buffalo head to the watering holes, but the FebFasters have sat without a drop, in dry isolation. Without alcohol the excuses to catch up are also fewer. Some friends of the long suffering staffers have more or less hung them out to dry and said “see you after the 1st of March.”

In a FebFast survey 27 per cent of people felt the need to drink at work gathering to fit in, but more than one in three said their work productivity increased while they participated in FebFast. Who knows? A dry PMO could run better, as Andrew Greene, when donating to the group on their donation page, joked “If you're off the booze maybe the office will start functioning properly.” But do you think you could cope in one of the most stressful offices imaginable, on no sleep without being able to have a beer at the end of the day? Would you begrudge them a beer even if it meant part of the government ran better? No, I didn’t think so.

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Has the net ended the drawn-out political dumping?

It would be easy to think that in these fast-paced times that long gone are the days of the drawn-out political dumping. It certainly does seem that most political scandals recently are resolving themselves quicker but who is to blame? Impatient voters, bad timing, savvy politicians who know when to quit or should we just blame the internet?

Many commentators in America are pointing to the online world for the most recent case, Republican congressman Christopher Lee who now likely holds the title of quickest career down the toilet. At 2.33pm on Monday, online gossip merchants Gawker published the story of Lee, a married, "family values" congressman, sending a shirtless photo to a woman he'd met through the personal section of a classifieds site. On the site he had described himself as a 38-year-old, divorced lobbyist, and "fit, fun, classy guy" when in fact, he is a 46-year-old married congressman and slightly naive guy. About three and bit hours later, he had resigned.

Of course, it's nothing new to hear about a socially conservative politician getting caught doing something hypocritical, and it is worth looking at Ranker's list of top 10 anti-gay activitists caught being gay. But what is remarkable is the rapidity of Lee's resignation and many have taken this example to mean the internet is speeding up political scandals. As one reporter put it "he (Lee) was a rising star in Congress at lunchtime — and out of office by dinner".

Advertisement: Story continues below There certainly has been a prevalence of swift dismissals in Australia in recent times. We only have to look at our national leadership change. Even though there was no scandal involved, just bad polling for Kevin Rudd, the prime minister was gone in 24 hours.

NSW Labor, too, has provided us with more than its fair share of quick bootings. Most recently, a key political adviser, married to NSW Education Minister Verity Firth, was caught buying ecstasy at 5.30 one Friday afternoon and handed in his letter of resignation to the Premier by the next morning. And poor David Campbell, former NSW transport minister, even resigned an hour before Channel Seven aired footage of him entering a gay sex club. NSW MP Matt Brown was police minister for only about 50 hours. He got the sack after allegations emerged that he removed most of his clothing at a late-night party in his Parliament House office.

In the case of the NSW embarassments, the internet played no major role, but the key factor was the low tolerance the voting public already had for its leaders misbehaving.

Sometimes a politician's timing is just all wrong. In 1977, politician Glen Sheil's ministerial career was over before it had started. Then prime minister Malcolm Fraser's ministry was named at 5pm on December 19 with Sheil getting Veteran's Affairs, but Sheil was dumped from the position 43 hours later, after making supportive noise for the apartheid system. Since Fraser had made strong comments against South Africa's segregated system, he lost little time cutting Sheil adrift.

Concrete proof and the popularity and power of the person involved is also a factor to consider and have meant scandal-ridden careers have held on against impossible odds even in these times of 24 hour news cycles. Bill Clinton and the American public agonised for months over his scandal with Monica Lewinsky but even after all that, left office with a popularity rating of 68 per cent.

And we have the soap opera that is the prime ministership of one Silvio Berlusconi's and his series of misdemeanours. Many are now predicting he won't last his full term, but his popularity helped him stay in power thus far.

Cases like Congressman Lee's show that 21st century communications may be making the political scandal more quickly exposed, but one cannot ignore other factors — a political figure's power and popularity, the burden of proof and scandal fatigue among the electorate.

Trust and the twitterati

SINCE the Pope has now officially blessed social networking, we better start taking it seriously. While there has been some initial polling, we're still yet to get the full picture of the public's reaction to the government's proposed flood levy.

In the mean time, Twitter and Facebook are already pointing us towards the public's trust issues with government.

Usually any political debate on Twitter or Facebook roams over the same political ground. Why wouldn't it? Its members, generally speaking, share similar education levels, economic backgrounds and age ranges.

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Curiously, on the flood levy, the reaction seems to be split down the middle.

Both sides have been fighting the political battle online. Facebook groups and websites sprang up straight after the levy announcement. Stopthelevy.com, a domain bought by Tim Andrews — creator of the blog "Why the right will triumph in Australia: Hot Girls" — came online just two hours after Julia Gillard had delivered her speech outlining the ins and outs of the flood package. The website is sponsored by new conservative kids on the online block, the website Menzies House, which in turn has links with the Liberal Party and, in particular, Liberal Senator Cory Bernardi.

There's no keepthelevy.com but many Facebook groups have popped up in support of the new tax. Groups like "Happy to pay that tiny flood levy to help rebuild lives in QLD" and "Supporting the flood levy" have more than a thousand "likes" between them.

But there are also other pages, such as "NO flood levy", "Say 'No' to Julia Gillard's flood levy tax" and "No flood levy, No Julia Gillard, No Labor" that have a few hundred "likes". Stop the Levy's Facebook page is also approaching a thousand supporters.

When you think about it, Twitter is a select focus group on steroids. In the banter we can see all the angles of the debate; those who are critical often point to a lack of trust in the Gillard government and its ability to manage the books — Labor's recurring cross. One concerned taxpayer tweeted "2 years ago the Federal Government gave out money in the form of the Tax Bonus and is now hitting taxpayers for a refund with the flood levy". Another seemed to agree with the sentiment: ". . . we will NOT be taken as fools by this economically incompetent and untrustworthy Labor govt".

Those in favour of the levy have pointed to the uncharitable nature of those who are unwilling to pay a small amount to help rebuild. One blogger took the idea of people on higher incomes not wanting to pay the levy to a unique conclusion. She offered to pay it for them — as long as they sent her a picture of themselves fanning banknotes with a caption that read "that's right — I don't want to help!".

One tweeter shared much the same sentiment: "Next time you hear someone bitch about paying the Flood Levy, throw 'em two bucks and tell them 'the first month's on me' ".

Many agreed the whole issue revolved around trust, with one microblogger noting: "The point of paying tax is 4 the gov't 2 use it in our best interests! We need 2 trust the gov't we elected to follow through."

This debate does boil down to an issue of trust — those who have faith in the government and those who do not. How you solve this dilemma is what the government has to resolve. And sharpish.

Top 10 moments in a seriously weird political year

Undoubtedly, this has been a year of strange political tidings — from Tea Party endorsed candidates using "I'm not a witch" as a selling point in their US mid-term campaign ad to the almost daily scandals involving Silvio Berlusconi.

But you don't have to look that far afield to find some weird moments in 2010. And so in the spirit of end-of-year reflection, here are the top 10 weirdest moments in Australian politics of 2010 (barring the Julia/Kev swap because it would eclipse everything else):

1: Shoe throwing

Advertisement: Story continues below You've got to say one of the most awkward television moments of the year and by far the most entertaining was watching a dread-locked hippy cliche throw his shoes at ex-PM John Howard on ABC's Q&A over the Iraq war. You couldn't write it. It was just too perfectly awful.

2. The Latham encounters

Former Labor leader Mark Latham's return in the 2010 election campaign contained innumerable cringe-worthy moments. Suddenly employed as a journalist for 60 minutes, Latham turned up in the campaign circus, pushing through a crowd to accost PM Julia Gillard. He then later tried to tell his point of view on the incident, but instead excused his actions by saying it was the PM's fault, she had made the moment awkward because she stroked him down his front.

There was also the excruciating "confrontation" with Opposition Leader Tony Abbott reported as only this campaign could have been by Sky News. As one commentator described it, it was the moment where 24-hour news ate itself.

3. 7.30 reportland meltdowns

Kerry O'Brien, in short succession, managed to have two political leaders meltdown on his program. After some light pushing, O'Brien got Abbott to say you couldn't trust what he said unless his were carefully scripted remarks, and Rudd blew his top at a particularly inopportune moment when he was down in the polls. The latter interview gave us the ever-popular term "7.30 reportland".

4. Group Hugs

For 17 days when Australia was holding its breath waiting for the three independents to bring one of the two major parties into government was filled with strange moments. Apart from Oakeshott's painfully long joint press conference with Windsor, the "group hug" in which ALP minister Anthony Albanese, Coalition MP Chris Pyne, Oakeshott and Windsor hugged and patted each other on the back in front of cameras was a moment, I dare say, we may never see repeated. Even Pyne said that this was taking the spirit of harmony "a little too far".

5. Rudd speech to Mid-Winter ball

Maybe it was all the negative press he was getting from David Marr's Quarterly Essay or the further flak from his comments on journalist Latika Bourke's fashion sense, but Kevin Rudd's speech to the Mid-Winter ball, was filled with passive-aggressive moments, false good humour and awkward timing. The ball became a telling point in Rudd's demise. In the speech, he spent some time describing the ins and outs of rat f---ing and telling the mining presence at the ball that he had "a very long memory"'. Hmmm.

6. Kiss and make up?

Rudd is also involved in another of the more awkward moments of the year. During the campaign, Gillard, desperate to make the divorced pair look positively marital, set up a media opportunity in Brisbane. There were to be no questions asked, just happy snaps. But the carefully staged event ended up looking strange and forced.

7. Budgie smugglers

Despite being managed to within an inch of its life, the campaign actually managed to produce a few hairy moments for both candidates. Abbott probably had the worst of it, getting accosted by a man in red speedos who later, it turned out, was a man on the Victorian Labor payroll. Gillard got off relatively lightly with just a disgruntled student protest and a few bad photos with disapproving babies.

8. Campaign fringe — Barker, Francis and the rest.

It's hard to go past dumped Liberal party candidate David Barker for an unacceptable campaign tactic, just attack your opponent's religion. Too easy. Barker is not in the parliament because of his anti-Muslim comments on Facebook, as well as attacking Gillard's atheism. Some other highlights from the campaign fringe included revelations about liberal member for Dawson, George Christensen, who in a student newspaper made jokes about Jews, gays and women, and Family First candidate Wendy Francis who tweeted that children with gay parents were being emotionally abused.

9. The Australian Sex Party debating Family First on morning TV

Do I need say much more? Here they are on channel 7's Sunrise.

10. Climate change elephant on Sky News

The climate change elephant followed the election campaign relentlessly, and his persistence, it seems, paid off scoring himself an interview on Sky News by prodding the live news anchorman, David Lipson with his trunk.

Bella Counihan work at the Canberra press gallery and writes for The National Times.